New study in "Nature": How rapid temperature changes influence biodiversity

The study focused on how the composition of species in an ecosystem - rather than the number of species - has shifted over time. The researchers found that faster temperature changes sped up shifts in species composition, meaning species identities changed more rapidly in those areas.

The results also suggest that behavioral adaptation and changing species interactions are not enough to preserve species composition in the face of higher rates of temperature fluctuations. 

"It's like shuffling a deck of cards, and temperature change now is shuffling that deck faster and faster," said lead author Dr Malin Pinsky, associate professor of ecology and evolutionary biology at UC Santa Cruz. Pinsky was hosted at iDiv as a sabbatical researcher in 2020. "The worry is that eventually you start to lose some cards," he said.

The study’s findings are unique because the impacts of temperature change have often not been clear on land or in freshwater ecosystems. While impacts on ocean species have been more overt, and therefore easier to measure, plants and animals on land adapt in subtler ways, the researchers said. 

Unlike ocean animals, those on land can often move short distances to find new locations that better suit their temperature needs. Though this can mitigate the effects of temperature change a bit, this research finds that terrestrial creatures are still susceptible to destabilisation and replacement due to temperature change. In their paper, the researchers focus on the rates of species replacement, which refers to the loss and gain of species over time. While this happens naturally, they found that the rate of replacement is increasing due to faster temperature changes. 

If that trend continues, it may put critical ecosystem functions and services at risk, the study concludes. The most effective ways to avoid these outcomes are to mitigate further global warming, reduce the alteration of natural environments, and preserve heterogeneous landscapes with diverse temperatures.

Why diverse environments are important

In addition, the researchers found that species in ecosystems with less-varied habitats were more sensitive to temperature change than those with more diverse temperatures nearby. For example, if a person stood in an open field during summer and started to overheat, there would be nowhere cooler to hide. But if a forest were nearby, one could simply move into the shade of a tree to cool down. The paper concludes that animals take advantage of habitat variation to buffer themselves against major temperature swings. Living near these temperature escapes allows organisms to move nearby for relief, rather than going extinct or being replaced entirely.

"This result highlights the potential for local environmental conditions to buffer or amplify the effects of temperature increases," said co-author Dr Benoit Gauzens from iDiv and the University of Jena. "It emphasises the importance of preserving a diversity of habitats to maintain variations in climatic conditions and species refuges."

Whether due to natural conditions or human interference, not all environments have a diversity of temperatures to help protect the species that live in them. It is these animals that are most at risk due to faster temperature changes. Understanding the differing needs of species living in more or less varied environments can help society identify which ecosystems need the most attention and protection, the study concludes.

"Establishing this explicit link between rates of climate change and rates of species turnover allows us to better understand how changing temperatures can impact different ecosystems," said senior author Dr Shane Blowes from iDiv and the MLU. "Pinpointing factors that impact the rate of local species replacement can help prioritise conservation actions."

How human activity impacts turnover  

Importantly, the researchers found that human impacts like land use, pollution, and introduction of invasive species exacerbate the impacts of temperature change on species replacement. This is possibly due to human activity reducing the diversity of landscapes and increasing stress on species that are already near their temperature limits.

To conserve ecosystems and their benefits to people, humans can help by "preserving more natural habitats, reducing pollution, and reducing the spread of invasive species," said lead author Pinsky. "In the ocean, factors like reduced fishing pressure and protecting habitats are important and helpful."

This research was financed inter alia by the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft (German Research Foundation, DFG).

Study:  Pinsky, M.L. et al. Warming and cooling catalyse widespread temporal turnover in biodiversity. Nature (2025). doi: 10.1038/s41586-024-08456-z

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